A new approach for sizing trials with composite binary endpoints using anticipated marginal values and accounting for the correlation between components

Composite binary endpoints are increasingly used as primary endpoints in clinical trials. When designing a trial, it is crucial to determine the appropriate sample size for testing the statistical differences between treatment groups for the primary endpoint. As shown in this work, when using a composite binary endpoint to size a trial, one needs to specify the event rates and the effect sizes of the composite components as well as the correlation between them. In practice, the marginal parameters of the components can be obtained from previous studies or pilot trials, however, the correlation is often not previously reported and thus usually unknown. We first show that the sample size for composite binary endpoints is strongly dependent on the correlation and, second, that slight deviations in the prior information on the marginal parameters may result in underpowered trials for achieving the study objectives at a pre-specified significance level. We propose a general strategy for calculating the required sample size when the correlation is not specified, and accounting for uncertainty in the marginal parameter values. We present the web platform CompARE to characterize composite endpoints and to calculate the sample size just as we propose in this paper. We evaluate the performance of the proposal with a simulation study, and illustrate it by means of a real case study using CompARE

Developing a Simplified Consent Form for Biobanking

BACKGROUND: Consent forms have lengthened over time and become harder for participants to understand. We sought to demonstrate the feasibility of creating a simplified consent form for biobanking that comprises the minimum information necessary to meet ethical and regulatory requirements. We then gathered preliminary data concerning its content from hypothetical biobank participants. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We followed basic principles of plain-language writing and incorporated into a 2-page form (not including the signature page) those elements of information required by federal regulations and recommended by best practice guidelines for biobanking. We then recruited diabetes patients from community-based practices and randomized half (n = 56) to read the 2-page form, first on paper and then a second time on a tablet computer. Participants were encouraged to use "More information" buttons on the electronic version whenever they had questions or desired further information. These buttons led to a series of "Frequently Asked Questions" (FAQs) that contained additional detailed information. Participants were asked to identify specific sentences in the FAQs they thought would be important if they were considering taking part in a biorepository. On average, participants identified 7 FAQ sentences as important (mean 6.6, SD 14.7, range: 0-71). No one sentence was highlighted by a majority of participants; further, 34 (60.7%) participants did not highlight any FAQ sentences. CONCLUSIONS: Our preliminary findings suggest that our 2-page form contains the information that most prospective participants identify as important. Combining simplified forms with supplemental material for those participants who desire more information could help minimize consent form length and complexity, allowing the most substantively material information to be better highlighted and enabling potential participants to read the form and ask questions more effectively

Non-beneficial pediatric research : individual and social interests

Biomedical research involving human subjects is an arena of conflicts of interests. One of the most important conflicts is between interests of participants and interests of future patients. Legal regulations and ethical guidelines are instruments designed to help find a fair balance between risks and burdens taken by research subjects and development of knowledge and new treatment. There is an universally accepted ethical principle, which states that it is not ethically allowed to sacrifice individual interests for the sake of society and science. This is the principle of precedence of individual. But there is a problem with how to interpret the principle of precedence of individual in the context of research without prospect of future benefit involving children. There are proposals trying to reconcile non-beneficial research involving children with the concept of the best interests. We assert that this reconciliation is flawed and propose an interpretation of the principle of precedence of individual as follows: not all, but only the most important interests of participants, must be guaranteed; this principle should be interpreted as the secure participant standard. In consequence, the issue of permissible risk ceiling becomes ethically crucial in research with incompetent subjects

Big-Data-Driven Materials Science and its FAIR Data Infrastructure

This chapter addresses the forth paradigm of materials research -- big-data driven materials science. Its concepts and state-of-the-art are described, and its challenges and chances are discussed. For furthering the field, Open Data and an all-embracing sharing, an efficient data infrastructure, and the rich ecosystem of computer codes used in the community are of critical importance. For shaping this forth paradigm and contributing to the development or discovery of improved and novel materials, data must be what is now called FAIR -- Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Re-purposable/Re-usable. This sets the stage for advances of methods from artificial intelligence that operate on large data sets to find trends and patterns that cannot be obtained from individual calculations and not even directly from high-throughput studies. Recent progress is reviewed and demonstrated, and the chapter is concluded by a forward-looking perspective, addressing important not yet solved challenges.Comment: submitted to the Handbook of Materials Modeling (eds. S. Yip and W. Andreoni), Springer 2018/201

Efficient and Unbiased Estimation of Population Size

Population sizing from still aerial pictures is of wide applicability in ecological and social sciences. The problem is long standing because current automatic detection and counting algorithms are known to fail in most cases, and exhaustive manual counting is tedious, slow, difficult to verify and unfeasible for large populations. An alternative is to multiply population density with some reference area but, unfortunately, sampling details, handling of edge effects, etc., are seldom described. For the first time we address the problem using principles of geometric sampling. These principles are old and solid, but largely unknown outside the areas of three dimensional microscopy and stereology. Here we adapt them to estimate the size of any population of individuals lying on an essentially planar area, e.g. people, animals, trees on a savanna, etc. The proposed design is unbiased irrespective of population size, pattern, perspective artifacts, etc. The implementation is very simple—it is based on the random superimposition of coarse quadrat grids. Also, an objective error assessment is often lacking. For the latter purpose the quadrat counts are often assumed to be independent. We demonstrate that this approach can perform very poorly, and we propose (and check via Monte Carlo resampling) a new theoretical error prediction formula. As far as efficiency, counting about 50 (100) individuals in 20 quadrats, can yield relative standard errors of about 8% (5%) in typical cases. This fact effectively breaks the barrier hitherto imposed by the current lack of automatic face detection algorithms, because semiautomatic sampling and manual counting becomes an attractive option

A biophysical model of cell adhesion mediated by immunoadhesin drugs and antibodies

A promising direction in drug development is to exploit the ability of natural killer cells to kill antibody-labeled target cells. Monoclonal antibodies and drugs designed to elicit this effect typically bind cell-surface epitopes that are overexpressed on target cells but also present on other cells. Thus it is important to understand adhesion of cells by antibodies and similar molecules. We present an equilibrium model of such adhesion, incorporating heterogeneity in target cell epitope density and epitope immobility. We compare with experiments on the adhesion of Jurkat T cells to bilayers containing the relevant natural killer cell receptor, with adhesion mediated by the drug alefacept. We show that a model in which all target cell epitopes are mobile and available is inconsistent with the data, suggesting that more complex mechanisms are at work. We hypothesize that the immobile epitope fraction may change with cell adhesion, and we find that such a model is more consistent with the data. We also quantitatively describe the parameter space in which binding occurs. Our results point toward mechanisms relating epitope immobility to cell adhesion and offer insight into the activity of an important class of drugs.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figure

Progression of the first stage of spontaneous labour: A prospective cohort study in two sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: Escalation in the global rates of labour interventions, particularly cesarean section and oxytocin augmentation, has renewed interest in a better understanding of natural labour progression. Methodological advancements in statistical and computational techniques addressing the limitations of pioneer studies have led to novel findings and triggered a re-evaluation of current labour practices. As part of the World Health Organization's Better Outcomes in Labour Difficulty (BOLD) project, which aimed to develop a new labour monitoring-to-action tool, we examined the patterns of labour progression as depicted by cervical dilatation over time in a cohort of women in Nigeria and Uganda who gave birth vaginally following a spontaneous labour onset. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This was a prospective, multicentre, cohort study of 5,606 women with singleton, vertex, term gestation who presented at ≤ 6 cm of cervical dilatation following a spontaneous labour onset that resulted in a vaginal birth with no adverse birth outcomes in 13 hospitals across Nigeria and Uganda. We independently applied survival analysis and multistate Markov models to estimate the duration of labour centimetre by centimetre until 10 cm and the cumulative duration of labour from the cervical dilatation at admission through 10 cm. Multistate Markov and nonlinear mixed models were separately used to construct average labour curves. All analyses were conducted according to three parity groups: parity = 0 (n = 2,166), parity = 1 (n = 1,488), and parity = 2+ (n = 1,952). We performed sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of oxytocin augmentation on labour progression by re-examining the progression patterns after excluding women with augmented labours. Labour was augmented with oxytocin in 40% of nulliparous and 28% of multiparous women. The median time to advance by 1 cm exceeded 1 hour until 5 cm was reached in both nulliparous and multiparous women. Based on a 95th percentile threshold, nulliparous women may take up to 7 hours to progress from 4 to 5 cm and over 3 hours to progress from 5 to 6 cm. Median cumulative duration of labour indicates that nulliparous women admitted at 4 cm, 5 cm, and 6 cm reached 10 cm within an expected time frame if the dilatation rate was ≥ 1 cm/hour, but their corresponding 95th percentiles show that labour could last up to 14, 11, and 9 hours, respectively. Substantial differences exist between actual plots of labour progression of individual women and the 'average labour curves' derived from study population-level data. Exclusion of women with augmented labours from the study population resulted in slightly faster labour progression patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Cervical dilatation during labour in the slowest-yet-normal women can progress more slowly than the widely accepted benchmark of 1 cm/hour, irrespective of parity. Interventions to expedite labour to conform to a cervical dilatation threshold of 1 cm/hour may be inappropriate, especially when applied before 5 cm in nulliparous and multiparous women. Averaged labour curves may not truly reflect the variability associated with labour progression, and their use for decision-making in labour management should be de-emphasized

Conscientiousness, Career Success, and Longevity: A Lifespan Analysis

Markers of executive functioning, such as prudent planning for the future and impulse control, are related to conscientiousness and may be central to both occupational success and health outcomes. The aim of the study was to examine relations among conscientiousness, career success, and mortality risk across a 65-year period. Using data derived from 693 male participants in the Terman Life Cycle Study, we examined associations among childhood personality, midlife objective career success, and lifelong mortality risk through 2006. Conscientiousness and career success each predicted lower mortality risk (N = 693, relative hazard (rh) = 0.82 [95% confidence interval = 0.74, 0.91] and rh = 0.80 [0.71, 0.91], respectively), with both shared and unique variance. Importantly, childhood personality moderated the success–longevity link; conscientiousness was most relevant for least successful individuals. Conscientiousness and career success predicted longevity, but not in a straightforward manner. Findings highlight the importance of lifespan processes